The Weather Bot

Issue No. 31 · 2026-05-20

Paper trading · not yet real money

+136.1%

equity over a $1,000 starting bankroll · 31 days of paper trading · barbell strategy on Hong Kong daily-high-temperature markets

Current limitations

What we are not claiming

89% of P&L comes from 2 YES tickets

The two lottery wins drove almost the entire equity curve. Until more YES winners land, treat the headline number as a wide confidence interval — not a sustainable ROI.

Sample is n=69 with a 95% CI of 53.2%–75.5% on win rate

Win rate can be statistically separated from 0% edge but not from a much smaller edge. Reasonable people could still call the model a coin flip.

Traded-bucket Brier skill is negative

On the temperature buckets the bot actually bets on, calibration is broken — the model is more confident than it should be. Isotonic calibration was tested and did not save it.

Adaptive Kelly: blocked · depth_audit_pending

Sizing is held at fixed 25% Kelly. Compound bankroll proposal is blocked until honest-fill audit confirms mid-price entries are not fictional.

Equity · full history

31 days, two outliers

The two terracotta dots represent the YES-side wins. Strip them out and the line is barely positive — the strategy is honest about that.

The strategy

Two sides of one bet

NO

Income engine

High-price favourite. Win small often. Carries the bankroll between the lottery hits.

n
54
hit
74.1%
pnl
+$150

95% CI on hit rate: 60.7 – 84.4%

YES

Lottery upside

Low-price dog. Lose small, often. The two YES wins below funded almost the entire equity curve.

n
15
hit
33.3%
pnl
+$1184

95% CI on hit rate: 15.2 – 58.3%

“NO carries the bankroll. YES delivers the upside NO cannot.”

Recent settled

Last 8 trades

  • NOIncome
    28°C @ $0.71
    2026-05-19 · stake $30.00 · edge 13%
    +$8.70
    won
  • NOIncome
    27°C @ $0.62
    2026-05-18 · stake $30.00 · edge 18%
    +$18.39
    won
  • YESLottery
    31°C @ $0.075
    2026-05-17 · stake $20.00 · edge 22%
    +$240.00
    won
  • NOIncome
    29°C @ $0.68
    2026-05-17 · stake $30.00 · edge 11%
    +$14.12
    won
  • YESLottery
    23°C @ $0.040
    2026-05-16 · stake $25.00 · edge 28%
    +$529.00
    won
  • NOIncome
    30°C @ $0.81
    2026-05-16 · stake $30.00 · edge 9%
    -$30.00
    lost
  • NOIncome
    28°C @ $0.69
    2026-05-15 · stake $30.00 · edge 14%
    +$13.45
    won
  • NOIncome
    27°C @ $0.55
    2026-05-14 · stake $30.00 · edge 19%
    +$24.55
    won